Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and prediction markets. Delphi is relatively simple and cheap to implement and has been adopted for diverse applications in business and government since its origins in the 1950s. It can be used for nearly ...
متن کاملM P Ra Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and prediction markets. Delphi is relatively simple and cheap to implement and has been adopted for diverse applications in business and government since its origins in the 1950s. It can be used for nearly ...
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We conducted laboratory experiments to analyze the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) compared to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) that had to solve a quantitative judgment task that did not involve distributed knowledge. This task consisted of ten factual questions, which required...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1153124